Ben Meiselas invited data analysts Tom Bonier of TargetSmart and Simon Rosenberg of Hopium Chronicles to discuss the current state of the 2024 election on Thursday. As early voting surges across the U.S., Bonier and Rosenberg shared insights on the early numbers, campaign strategies, and polling stability in critical battleground states.
Rosenberg opened with an analysis of national polling, which shows a stable three- to four-point lead for Harris over Trump. In the battleground states, Democrats hold a stronger position than anticipated, with Rosenberg optimistic about Democrats’ ability to sway undecided voters in the final days. He highlighted the Harris campaign’s extensive ad presence and strategic voter outreach, which he says contributes to a positive momentum.
Bonier agreed, emphasizing that the early voting numbers show encouraging signs for Democrats, despite some Republican-leaning narratives. Using TargetSmart’s early voting data, Bonier pointed out that Democrats are performing as well or better in key battleground states compared to 2020. He addressed the media’s tendency to focus on national early voting stats, which often skew Republican. According to Bonier, the real story lies in battleground states, where Democratic turnout is outperforming expectations in critical areas like Georgia, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
Both analysts also explored the trend of Republican “crossover” voters. Bonier’s data indicates that Republicans voting early this year are more likely to vote for Harris than for Trump, a trend supported by polling from multiple outlets. Rosenberg connected this trend to voter sentiment, noting that many moderate Republicans and independents are repelled by Trump’s rhetoric and gravitating toward Harris. According to internal campaign data, Harris has concentrated her outreach on this persuadable Republican demographic, aided by high-profile Republican endorsements like Liz Cheney.
Additionally, Bonier highlighted a significant gender gap in early voting. Women, particularly younger voters and seniors, are turning out in high numbers across battleground states, a continuation of the “Dobbs effect” seen in 2022. This surge is particularly notable among women over 65 and young women who are highly motivated by reproductive rights and the desire to protect the progress made over recent decades.
As the election draws closer, Bonier and Rosenberg urged voters to remain active and avoid despair, reminding viewers of targeted efforts to discourage Democratic turnout. Bonier underscored that voter suppression tactics and inflated polling from GOP sources aim to dampen enthusiasm for Harris. Rosenberg pointed out that MAGA polls have been used strategically to skew averages, making it appear as though Trump is leading. He emphasized that without these “red wave” polls, the race actually leans toward Harris.
Concluding the interview, Meiselas shared anecdotes from long-time Republicans who are voting blue in 2024, representing what Bonier and Rosenberg called the “common-sense” voter — someone who is motivated by stability, democracy, and a desire to move away from the divisiveness of the Trump years. With the election in its final stretch, all three stressed the importance of remaining engaged and focused on mobilizing every potential voter.
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