In an exclusive interview with the MeidasTouch Network, data experts Tom Bonier of TargetSmart and Simon Rosenberg of Hopium Chronicles analyzed the early voting landscape one day before Election Day. Bonier highlighted that while early voting totals are down by 13% compared to four years ago, this shift reflects more people choosing to vote on Election Day rather than a lack of enthusiasm. He noted that Democrats still hold a significant advantage in the early vote, defying Republican efforts to close the gap, despite a high-profile GOP push involving Elon Musk to bolster early turnout.
According to Bonier, the Republican Party had promised to reverse their 2020 early voting loss by deploying substantial resources to motivate their base to vote early. However, Bonier observed that early vote data shows a “colossal Republican failure,” with early voting demographics mirroring those of 2020—a year in which Democrats dominated. In states like North Carolina, gender gaps in the early vote have actually widened since 2020, indicating that the GOP’s push to mobilize new, younger voters has largely fallen flat.
Simon Rosenberg underscored the significance of recent polling data, which has shown Vice President Kamala Harris leading in key battlegrounds, including a three-point lead in Iowa and a twenty-point lead among women in Kansas. Rosenberg interpreted these polling shifts as evidence that GOP strategies—particularly those involving questionable polling from conservative firms and overseas betting markets—may be less about accurately gauging the election and more about influencing public perception to prepare for a contested election outcome. The increased polling from right-wing outlets is part of what Rosenberg calls a “red wave” strategy, designed to create a narrative that Trump is ahead despite data indicating otherwise.
Rosenberg and Bonier concluded by emphasizing the importance of maintaining voter turnout through Election Day, with Rosenberg urging Americans to disregard misleading narratives about a Republican “red wave” and to close the election strong, emphasizing that victory margins will be crucial in ensuring a decisive outcome.
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The Final Countdown: Data Experts Say GOP's Early Voting Strategy Has Fallen Short