Vote!!!! This is a tight race, but republican-backed polls, russian backed polls and Polymarket skew the numbers to make it seem like Trump is doing better. This is meant to exhaust you and make you believe your vote doesn’t matter; thus, you'll give up and not vote. Don’t take the bait! Vote, and help others get to the polls.
It really shouldn't be close at all, there is no choice for reasonable people. An articulate, intelligent, conscientious, energetic, successful person with a vision for moving America forward in excellent ways vs. a convicted felon who instigated a lethal insurrection against the country/Constitution he took an oath to protect as well as defying the espionage act with the theft of top secret documents and who has nothing to offer America except cozying up to dictators, advancement of white supremacy, division and tax cuts for the very wealthy.
During Democrats, lower and middle class increase standard of living. During Republicans, billionaires become richer and lower and middle class Americans needs are ignored. That's a fact.
I can't wait to celebrate Harris/Walz epic victory wearing this great "We the People means EVERYONE" shirt on November 5th 👇
Sounds like their Stacking the Deck?! Vote Blue Up and Down the Ballot in November! When Democrats VOTE Democrats WIN ! Great article this morning ☕ and will reStack ASAP 💯👍🇺🇲💙🌊
Polymarket can potentially be an advantage to democrats chances if you think about it. Due to their extreme right wing bias its misleading MAGA voters into thinking that they have a safe lead. Some of them as a result probably won’t go out to vote on Election Day.
That ought to frighten everyone. When people like Trump, who is ill with dementia, try to drive, we hide the keys. I guess his family likes him about as much as the rest of the world. Now, if he just hurt himself that would be one thing. But how many other people can he maim or kill?
Thank you for this article. I was just talking to a friend who had worked himself into a tizzy about the betting market favoring Trump. I tried to explain to him why he shouldn’t pay any attention to these reports, but I don’t think I did a very good job. This is exactly what he, and others like him, need to understand.
Meidas! This is an off topic comment. One word flying around this election needs to be defined clearly and everytime it is used: "facist". Otherwise it is a meaningless slur, although many people could not tell you why. You don't need policies in a fascist government. You need people to put down and make the enemy.
This type of hype from the right wing is a direct indicator of how close election time is. They start the "red wave" propaganda around 30 days before Nov 5 every election and keep ramping it up in some lame attempt to discourage the left from even bothering to vote. Unfortunately for them with the Dobbs decision taking a 50 year hard fought right away from half of the country, that ploy isn't going to work any better than it did the last time. Women and their advocates are going to make them pay for their actions and Deadbeat Donnie will pay the highest cost.
“What on earth happened to Nate Silver?!” was my thought on seeing here that he’s an adviser to this Polymarket thing. So I google that question, and here’s a Vox piece from September with an almost identical headline: https://www.vox.com/politics/372217/nate-silver-2024-polls-trump-harris
Definitely worth the read to understand his evolution from the boy(-ish) genius looked upon by the Left as “ours,” to a sort of neutral (or nihilistic, depending on your angle) data cruncher who now leans much more to the right.
even more important is the fact that the data seems to say that a single entity somewhere near Dubai / Moscow timezone plunked down almost $30 million on Trump in just the last few days, dramatically changing the forecast: https://x.com/Cryptadamist/status/1846652022868566383
"Polymarket's odds are often wildly inaccurate. A day before Kamala Harris announced Governor Tim Walz as her running mate, Polymarket had Walz at just a 24% chance, while Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro was favored at 63%. This shows how far off the betting markets can be from the reality of campaign decisions and outcomes, proving that it is little more than speculation wrapped in an aura of legitimacy."
I don't think you know what "odds" are? Odds are the likelihood of a given event, the fact that people misperceived the information landscape regarding the VP pick doesn't somehow mean that the odds of that pick were wrong, it just means that the lower probability event happened. E.g. if there's a .75 probability of rain but it doesn't rain, that doesn't necessarily mean the model that generated that probability is wrong - the model said there was a 1 in 4 chance that it would rain after all.
Vote!!!! This is a tight race, but republican-backed polls, russian backed polls and Polymarket skew the numbers to make it seem like Trump is doing better. This is meant to exhaust you and make you believe your vote doesn’t matter; thus, you'll give up and not vote. Don’t take the bait! Vote, and help others get to the polls.
It really shouldn't be close at all, there is no choice for reasonable people. An articulate, intelligent, conscientious, energetic, successful person with a vision for moving America forward in excellent ways vs. a convicted felon who instigated a lethal insurrection against the country/Constitution he took an oath to protect as well as defying the espionage act with the theft of top secret documents and who has nothing to offer America except cozying up to dictators, advancement of white supremacy, division and tax cuts for the very wealthy.
During Democrats, lower and middle class increase standard of living. During Republicans, billionaires become richer and lower and middle class Americans needs are ignored. That's a fact.
I can't wait to celebrate Harris/Walz epic victory wearing this great "We the People means EVERYONE" shirt on November 5th 👇
https://libtees-2.creator-spring.com/listing/wtpmelb
I'll be celebrating in the streets like everyone else!
Sounds like their Stacking the Deck?! Vote Blue Up and Down the Ballot in November! When Democrats VOTE Democrats WIN ! Great article this morning ☕ and will reStack ASAP 💯👍🇺🇲💙🌊
Kamala Harris and Tim Walz will win and Drumpf and Vance will not concede even though legitimately losing to the Harris/Walz ticket.
Polymarket can potentially be an advantage to democrats chances if you think about it. Due to their extreme right wing bias its misleading MAGA voters into thinking that they have a safe lead. Some of them as a result probably won’t go out to vote on Election Day.
….Trump is in the driver’s seat
That ought to frighten everyone. When people like Trump, who is ill with dementia, try to drive, we hide the keys. I guess his family likes him about as much as the rest of the world. Now, if he just hurt himself that would be one thing. But how many other people can he maim or kill?
Is this truly betting! If so, a lot of MAGA/GQP/WCN Extremist Cult members are going to lose a lot of money.
Thank you for this article. I was just talking to a friend who had worked himself into a tizzy about the betting market favoring Trump. I tried to explain to him why he shouldn’t pay any attention to these reports, but I don’t think I did a very good job. This is exactly what he, and others like him, need to understand.
Meidas! This is an off topic comment. One word flying around this election needs to be defined clearly and everytime it is used: "facist". Otherwise it is a meaningless slur, although many people could not tell you why. You don't need policies in a fascist government. You need people to put down and make the enemy.
This type of hype from the right wing is a direct indicator of how close election time is. They start the "red wave" propaganda around 30 days before Nov 5 every election and keep ramping it up in some lame attempt to discourage the left from even bothering to vote. Unfortunately for them with the Dobbs decision taking a 50 year hard fought right away from half of the country, that ploy isn't going to work any better than it did the last time. Women and their advocates are going to make them pay for their actions and Deadbeat Donnie will pay the highest cost.
Just bet another $1000 on Kamala @+137.
I'm convinced this is free money, 3 week wait to cash.
“What on earth happened to Nate Silver?!” was my thought on seeing here that he’s an adviser to this Polymarket thing. So I google that question, and here’s a Vox piece from September with an almost identical headline: https://www.vox.com/politics/372217/nate-silver-2024-polls-trump-harris
Definitely worth the read to understand his evolution from the boy(-ish) genius looked upon by the Left as “ours,” to a sort of neutral (or nihilistic, depending on your angle) data cruncher who now leans much more to the right.
🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🎃🎃🎃🎃
even more important is the fact that the data seems to say that a single entity somewhere near Dubai / Moscow timezone plunked down almost $30 million on Trump in just the last few days, dramatically changing the forecast: https://x.com/Cryptadamist/status/1846652022868566383
"Polymarket's odds are often wildly inaccurate. A day before Kamala Harris announced Governor Tim Walz as her running mate, Polymarket had Walz at just a 24% chance, while Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro was favored at 63%. This shows how far off the betting markets can be from the reality of campaign decisions and outcomes, proving that it is little more than speculation wrapped in an aura of legitimacy."
I don't think you know what "odds" are? Odds are the likelihood of a given event, the fact that people misperceived the information landscape regarding the VP pick doesn't somehow mean that the odds of that pick were wrong, it just means that the lower probability event happened. E.g. if there's a .75 probability of rain but it doesn't rain, that doesn't necessarily mean the model that generated that probability is wrong - the model said there was a 1 in 4 chance that it would rain after all.