Simon Rosenberg of Hopium Chronicles and Tom Bonier of TargetSmart break down the latest election data, highlighting trends and key insights just days before the 2024 election.
Thank you thank you thank you!! I feel better. What a great analysis by true experts. I’m a lifelong Independent since 1971 and have voted for candidates of both parties, but I will not vote for ANY Republican until MAGA is eliminated.
So happy for the three of you. Great work. It's helpful to remind people about the red polling skewing what polls look like. Many people don't understand that part of it. I read comments all over Substack and other social media, with people freaking out over the polls, which is what they want us to do. Usually, there is someone who knows about this that will set the record straight.
I have been trying to amplify the Polymarket effect and the red polls flooding in, it was like a swoch got flipped abou 3 weeks ago...Harris was 2=3pts up in the Nat'l and many battlegounds...then this unexplained surge for Trump. This while he was doing everything wrong! They ar gaming the system to build their rigged vote scenario!
Thanks Meidas for that analysis///best I have felt in a while! none of the polls make sense to me, I am in Florida and the yard sign battle here is remarkable/ Always has been Trump everywhere, not this time Harris leads the sign coumt about 8-2! Plus I have felt there is a good Republican crossover vote that polls aren't refecting!
Thank goodness! I thought a lot of Republicans were voting for Harris because I've heard so many say they are! So glad to see it's really happening. I am SO grateful for our citizens who have integrity! We MUST win.
Regardless of the policies of the Republican parties policies it can't get past the fact that Trump is in severe mental decline talking rubbish and spewing endless lies and hate.I find it impossible to believe any sane american could vote for him.The sycophants who suck up to him will replace honest people in the government I shudder to think what will become of the mighty USA if Kamala doesn't win.Go girl go.You will be the salvation of America.
one question: is it accurate to compare early GOP vote in 2020 (which may have been for Biden since trump pushed waiting until election day), to early GOP vote in 2024 (now that trump is encouraging early voting) and assume it is for Democrats?
It is a relatively safe assumption that a significant number of them are voting D this year.
As mentioned, this is supported by EV exit polling, but the red counties with EV surges are counties where Nikki Haley got a good percentage of the primary votes. Are all of them voting Harris, or even half? No, of course not, but it just takes a small percentage.
Thank you thank you thank you!! I feel better. What a great analysis by true experts. I’m a lifelong Independent since 1971 and have voted for candidates of both parties, but I will not vote for ANY Republican until MAGA is eliminated.
Thank you, Kathleen!
So happy for the three of you. Great work. It's helpful to remind people about the red polling skewing what polls look like. Many people don't understand that part of it. I read comments all over Substack and other social media, with people freaking out over the polls, which is what they want us to do. Usually, there is someone who knows about this that will set the record straight.
I have been trying to amplify the Polymarket effect and the red polls flooding in, it was like a swoch got flipped abou 3 weeks ago...Harris was 2=3pts up in the Nat'l and many battlegounds...then this unexplained surge for Trump. This while he was doing everything wrong! They ar gaming the system to build their rigged vote scenario!
Excellent work Ben, Tom and Simon!!! Thank you! MTN you Rock!!!!
This time Elon Musk is paying people, and there have been instances of ballot box burning, etc. by people proven to be Repubicans and/or MAGA members.
CNN reports Trump $2B in debt. Is he vulnerable to influence. Putin, Musk, etc.
Thanks Meidas for that analysis///best I have felt in a while! none of the polls make sense to me, I am in Florida and the yard sign battle here is remarkable/ Always has been Trump everywhere, not this time Harris leads the sign coumt about 8-2! Plus I have felt there is a good Republican crossover vote that polls aren't refecting!
Thank goodness! I thought a lot of Republicans were voting for Harris because I've heard so many say they are! So glad to see it's really happening. I am SO grateful for our citizens who have integrity! We MUST win.
Thank you for your excellent analysis. I have included it in my humble writeup:
https://blmurch.substack.com/p/women-are-motivated-in-this-election
Regardless of the policies of the Republican parties policies it can't get past the fact that Trump is in severe mental decline talking rubbish and spewing endless lies and hate.I find it impossible to believe any sane american could vote for him.The sycophants who suck up to him will replace honest people in the government I shudder to think what will become of the mighty USA if Kamala doesn't win.Go girl go.You will be the salvation of America.
Mahalo for spreading truth and hope!
Mahalo for spreading truth and hope!
how are Democrats doing in PA?
one question: is it accurate to compare early GOP vote in 2020 (which may have been for Biden since trump pushed waiting until election day), to early GOP vote in 2024 (now that trump is encouraging early voting) and assume it is for Democrats?
It is a relatively safe assumption that a significant number of them are voting D this year.
As mentioned, this is supported by EV exit polling, but the red counties with EV surges are counties where Nikki Haley got a good percentage of the primary votes. Are all of them voting Harris, or even half? No, of course not, but it just takes a small percentage.